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\centerline{Montserrat 107N -- Understanding Randomness}
\centerline{Syllabus -- Spring 2010}
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\leftline{Professor: John Little}
\leftline{Office: Swords Hall 331}
\leftline{Office Phone: (508) 793-2274}
\leftline{Office Hours:  M 1 - 2 pm, 
T 10 - 11 am,  W 1 - 3 pm, RF 10 - 12 noon, and by appointment}
\leftline{Course Homepage:  {\tt http://mathcs.holycross.edu/\~{}little/Montserrat/Spring.html}}
\leftline{Email: {\tt little@mathcs.holycross.edu}, or {\tt jlittle@holycross.edu}}
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{\it The key to understanding randomness ... is not being able to intuit the 
answer to every problem immediately, but ... having the tools to figure out
the answer.  L. Mlodinow, The Drunkard's Walk}
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{\it Course Description}
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In this course, we will continue our study of mathematical
topics in statistics.  As we said in the syllabus for the 
fall semester:  {\it Statistical thinking is one method 
human beings have developed to discern and demonstrate the existence of 
underlying patterns in the information we gather from the natural world.   Statistical reasoning allows us to address questions
such as:  Do our historical records of temperature readings justify 
the claim that we are experiencing global climate change?  Do the 
results of medical studies justify the claim that a high-fat diet 
leads to increased risk of certain cancers?   This application of 
mathematics is an ever-growing component of public debate on issues 
in the environment, human health, and politics.}   

Last semester, we learned 
the basic tools of descriptive statistics and started to study chances. 
We will focus this semester on how statisticians
use an understanding of random processes based in the theory of probability
to develop methods
for estimation and hypothesis testing.  

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{\it Course Objectives}
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The major objectives of the course will be:
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\item{1.} To introduce you to a class of chance processes (called {\it box models})
and their expected values and standard errors; to show how these
models can be used to analyze a number of different point- and interval-estimation
problems based on sampling from a population.   
\item{2.} To introduce you to the language and methods of statistical 
hypothesis testing, and develop your skill in choosing the appropriate
test and carrying it out.  
\item{3.} To develop your ability to read and analyze reports of scientific 
studies in the popular press and other general-audience sources.
\item{4.} To further your development as writers and speakers.
\item{5.} To participate in and contribute to 
the common activities of the Natural World Cluster of the Montserrat program.
{\it Note:}  Dates and times for this semester's events
will be announced when plans are finalized.  
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{\it Texts}
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The main mathematical text for the course is {\it Statistics, 4th edition} by 
Freedman, Pisani, and Purves, published by W.W.Norton (same as last semester).
We will cover most of parts V, VI, VII, and VIII.  We will also read
{\it The Drunkard's Walk}, by L. Mlodinow, published by Vintage Books, and
the Natural World Cluster common text, {\it Primates and Philosophers: How
Morality Evolved} by F. de Waal, S. Macedo and J. Ober (editors),  
published by Princeton University Press.
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{\it Course Schedule}
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A detailed day-by-day course schedule 
will be maintained on the course homepage.  That listing is a tentative, evolving schedule,
so you will probably want to refer to it frequently.  Any important changes will also
be announced in class well in advance.   Required and suggested outside events
in the Montserrat program will be announced in class, on the course homepage, and on the Montserrat Moodle page.  
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{\it Assignments and Grading}
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\item{1.}  Midterm Exam (20 \% of course grade) -- tentative date: Friday, March 19.
\item{2.}  Final Exam (25 \% of course grade) -- the final will be given at the 
established time for MWF 9 am classes: Tuesday, May 11, at 8:30am.
\item{3.}  Problem Sets (about 5 through the semester -- 15 \% of course grade)
\item{4.}  In-class group work and computer labs  (10 \% of course grade)
\item{5.}  One (roughly 5 page) paper related to the common readings or other topics.
(More information and guidelines to be distributed later) (10 \% of course grade)   
\item{6.}  Final Project and Presentation (15 \% of course grade).  
You will work on this assignment in pairs.  It will lead to a roughly 10 page paper, 
and an oral presentation to the class -- more information and guidelines to be 
distributed later.
\item{7.}  Class participation (5 \% of course grade)
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I will be keeping your course average in numerical form throughout the semester, and only converting to a letter for the final course grade. The course grade will be assigned according to the following conversion table (also see Note below):
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\item{$\bullet$} A -- 94 and above
\item{$\bullet$} A- -- 90 - 93
\item{$\bullet$} B+ -- 87 - 89
\item{$\bullet$} B -- 84 - 86
\item{$\bullet$} B- -- 80 - 83
\item{$\bullet$} C+ -- 77 - 79
\item{$\bullet$} C -- 74 - 76
\item{$\bullet$} C- -- 70 - 73
\item{$\bullet$} D+ -- 67 -- 69
\item{$\bullet$} D -- 60 - 66
\item{$\bullet$} F -- 59 and below.
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Note: Depending on how the class as a whole is doing, some downward adjustments of the above letter grade boundaries may be made. No upward adjustments will be made, however. (This means, for instance, that an 85 course average would never convert to a letter grade of B- or below, although it might be a B+ in some circumstances.) If you ever have a question about the grading policy or your standing in the course, don't hesitate to ask me.
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{\it Advice On How To Succeed In This Class}
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{\bf A good work ethic is key.} You do not need to be a math genius to master this material 
and do well. But you will need to put in a consistent effort and keep up with the course.

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{\bf Come to class.}  Unless you are deathly ill, have a genuine family 
emergency, etc. plan on showing up here at 9:00 am every Monday, Wednesday, 
and Friday this semester.  Many of the class meetings of this course will be 
structured around discussions or student presentations.  Your
participation is expected and needed for the success of the course!


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{\bf Take notes and use them.} This may seem obvious, but it is worth 
saying!  Used intelligently, your notes can be a valuable resource as 
you work on problem sets and prepare for exams.


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{\bf Use the textbook and class notes actively.}  Plan to look over the section to be covered each day {\it before} coming to class. That will make the class activity 
or lecture more understandable. After the class, if things were not clear, you will find alternate explanations 
of concepts in the text that may help you past a block in your understanding. 
Reading a math book or rereading your class notes is not 
like reading a novel, though.  You will need to read very carefully, with pencil and paper in hand, perhaps working through the examples again in detail.  In addition, 
our textbook has a set of study 
questions at the end of many sections and full answers are provided at the end
of the book.  It will be very beneficial to do a good selection of these as part
of your regular study.   As you do this, if there are things you 
are not understanding, make a list of questions 
to ask in office hours or at the next class.  An important thing to bear in mind 
is that the {\it result} (the ``answer'') of an example or practice question 
is often secondary to the {\it process used in obtaining the result}
or the way the statistical ideas were applied to derive a conclusion -- that process or the 
way the conclusion was reached is the real point, and that's what you should take away from 
studying the example.


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{\bf Set up a regular study schedule and work at a steady pace.} 
It's not easy to play catch-up 
in a mathematics course (even when the course is part of a first-year program with additional
goals beyond the mathematics), since each topic builds on the previous ones. You should expect to budget at least 6 hours in a typical week for work outside of class. The best way to use your time is to do a few problems, a little reading from the book, and reviewing of class notes every day.


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{\bf Most importantly, if you are having difficulty learning something, 
get help as soon as possible.} 
You can do this by asking questions during class (any time something isn't clear), or seeing me during 
office hours.

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{\it Statement on Academic Integrity}
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All education is a cooperative enterprise between teachers and students.  This cooperation works well only when there is trust and mutual respect between everyone involved.  To be become an engaged and advanced learner, you must be able to think and work both independently and in concert with your peers.  
 
The College academic honesty policy states: 
“As an institution devoted to teaching, learning, and intellectual inquiry, Holy Cross expects all members of the College community to abide by the highest standards of academic integrity. Any violation of academic honesty undermines the student-teacher relationship, thereby wounding the whole community. The principal violations of academic honesty are plagiarism, cheating, and collusion.

Plagiarism is the act of taking the words, ideas, data, illustrative material, or statements of someone else, without full and proper acknowledgment, and presenting them as one’s own.

Cheating is the use of improper means or subterfuge to gain credit or advantage. Forms of cheating include the use, attempted use, or improper possession of unauthorized aids in any examination or other academic exercise submitted for evaluation; the fabrication or falsification of data; misrepresentation of academic or extracurricular credentials; and deceitful performance on placement examinations. It is also cheating to submit the same work for credit in more than one course, except as authorized in advance by the course instructors.

Collusion is assisting or attempting to assist another student in an act of academic dishonesty.”

The full statement on Academic Honesty in the College Catalog will be posted on the Natural World/Montserrat Moodle site and is available at
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\centerline{\tt http://www.holycross.edu/catalog/academic-honesty-policy.pdf}
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The temptation to engage in an act of academic dishonesty will almost certainly arise, but the chance to possibly enhance a single grade is not worth the loss of your personal integrity.  If you do not know how to correctly cite reference materials, consult with the campus Writer’s Workshop, or visit one of the links below (also posted on the Natural World/Montserrat Moodle site).

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Department of History: 
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\centerline{\tt http://www.holycross.edu/departments/history/website/academichonesty.htm}
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Department of English (link to Houghton Mifflin booklet, "Understanding Plagiarism: A Student Guide to Writing Your Own Work"):
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http://college.cengage.com/english/plagiarism\_prevention.html}
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Houghton Mifflin, “The Plagiarism Zone” 
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\centerline{\tt http://college.hmco.com/english/plagiarism\_prevention.html}
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NOTE:  If in doubt about what you plan to do or write violates academic honesty, PLEASE ASK!

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{\it Specific Guidelines for this Course}
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In this course, all examinations will be closed-book. No sharing of information with other students in any form will be permitted during exams. On group discussion and computer lab write-ups, close collaboration with the other members of your group is expected. On the individual problem sets, discussion of the questions with other students in the class
and with me during office hours is allowed, {\it even encouraged}. However, your final problem solutions should be prepared individually and the wording and organization of your final problem solutions should be entirely your own work.  Moreover, if you do take advantage of any of the above options for 
discussion of problems with others, you will be required to state that fact in a footnote 
accompanying the problem solution. Failure to follow this rule will be treated as a violation 
of the College's Academic Integrity policy.  For the two papers, if you do consult a source 
other than the course texts, include a full reference in a bibliography section at the end of your 
paper, and identify any direct quotations.  Information about the acceptable formats for doing this 
will be distributed with the paper assignments.  
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